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Channel Posts
🌏👨💻 Asia opens to a calmer crypto tape, with BTC steady around $92K as selling finally cools. Tone stays cautious. ETF flows turned slightly positive at $56.5M after heavy November outflows ⚡️, while derivatives still flash hesitation. Crypto remains in wait-and-see mode.
FOMC: Tone > Decision
All focus is on the FOMC tonight. The rate call is basically priced in, so Powell’s tone is the real market mover. With limited new data, the Fed is unlikely to hint at January. Key prints (Nov/Dec NFP and Jan CPI) are still ahead, keeping visibility low. Still, markets hold to a more dovish 2026 outlook.
BOJ Steps Up as the Next Risk Trigger
🏣🇯🇵 After the Fed, attention shifts to Japan. The Dec 19 BOJ meeting is the next major catalyst. JGB yields are at multi-decade highs (10Y ~1.95%, 30Y ~3.39%), and BOJ officials are openly uneasy with the pace. This puts USDJPY carry trades on alert - any surprise could spark volatility ⚠️
Crypto Holding Steady
Crypto stays in uneasy balance. 🪙BTC is basically flat YTD despite sharp swings, trading in the $90K–$93K range. After topping $123K mid-year, it now sits 3–7% lower YTD, showing resilience but no new trend. Corporate treasury demand remains a key pillar of support.
Busy week ahead - buckle up.
@QCP_Capital ❤️
34 82410
| 2 | 🌐 In a recent Straits Times CEO Insights feature, our founder Darius Sit shared his views on how institutional adoption and real-world use cases will help Bitcoin’s price and volatility mature over time.
💵 As Darius notes, Bitcoin’s role is evolving – from a speculative trade to an asset increasingly used for collateral, payments and portfolio diversification as more institutions come on board.
At QCP ❤️, we’ve seen this shift first-hand:
- Growing demand from institutions for risk-managed digital asset exposure
- Increased interest in options and structured strategies to navigate volatility
- A clear focus on long-term fundamentals over short-term price swings
As the market evolves, our focus remains on building disciplined, institutional-grade solutions that support sustainable growth across both the digital asset and traditional finance ecosystems.
📕 Read the full article here: https://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/bitcoins-price-will-stabilise-as-institutional-adoption-real-world-uses-grow-says-crypto-boss
@QCP_Capital ❤️ | 38 125 |
| 3 |  ❤️ —QCP Asia Colour - 8 December 2025
Whipsaw Weekends: Year-End Vol Warm-Up
Sunday gave us a sneak peek of holiday-season chaos: BTC ripped $88k → $92k, ETH $2.91k → $3.15k in thin liquidity 🎶, nuking both sides of leverage.
Even so, liquidations were only ~$440M 💸, showing how light positioning has gotten. Retail interest is dead quiet - 🔍 Google trends back to bear-market lows - and perp OI keeps bleeding: BTC -44%, ETH -50% from Oct highs. With participation thinning, tiny flows = oversized moves.
Silent Supply Squeeze
While retail cools off, whales/institutions are quietly stacking 🐳. Roughly 25k BTC has left CEXs in two weeks; ETFs + corp treasuries now hold more BTC than exchanges 👍. ETH balances also at decade lows.
With year-end liquidity drying up, dip-buying beats chasing. A clean break above $100k likely reawakens treasury FOMO.
Fed in Focus
FOMC on Wednesday is the next catalyst. A 25bp cut is priced in - the real tell will be balance-sheet hints. Any nod toward future asset buys could juice risk assets.
BTC still stuck in range; $84k and $100k are the real breakout lines. Options traders loading up (e.g., 25SEP26 50k/175k straddle) are clearly betting on a big move once we break out.
📅 Key Events :
Tue: US JOLTS (Oct)
Wed: FOMC Rate Decision
@QCP_Capital ❤️ | 41 574 |
| 4 |  ❤️ —QCP Asia Colour | 07 Dec 2025
BTC steady at $89.5k, reclaiming the $88-91k range on positive spot CVDs and LTH accumulation. ETH +5% WoW to $3,040 as ETF flows pivot from BTC to ETH (~$150M shift this week). SOL remains the standout alt at $133 (+17% from Nov lows) fueled by memecoin volume and new institutional on-ramps
🪙 🪙 🪙 🪙
Vol collapsed: BTC 1D IV at 36% (lowest in 3 weeks), ETH at 57%. Funding rates cooled to +10–15% annualized, clearing leverage overhang. Desk saw decent flow in Dec $90k BTC calls and 3–6M upside call spreads (zero upfront)
Key levels:
BTC $88k support | $91k pivot | $93.5k next
ETH $3,000 floor | $3,200 ceiling
SOL $128–$140 range
Takeaway: Macro tailwinds (QT end, 90% cut odds) still in control. Year-end grind higher remains the base case. We stay long gamma, selectively selling short-dated premium on spikes while adding March ETH exposure.
@QCP_Capital ❤️ | 45 313 |
| 5 |  No text | 1 |
| 6 | QCP Asia Colour – 3 December 2025
BTC Holds in the 90s While Investors Brace for FOMC
BTC is steady in the mid 90s after a 5% rebound from the 86k lows, while markets sit in wait ahead of a politically charged FOMC next week.
Betting markets now price 85% odds that Kevin Hassett becomes the next Fed Chair, with a rare sequence of leadership changes set to tilt the FOMC more dovish. Futures still point to a 90% chance of a 25bp cut.
Strategy’s 1.4bn dollar equity raise has eased immediate fears, lifting mNAV back to around 1.14, though the 15 January MSCI review remains a key risk.
Is this calm the start of a reset or just the pause before the next move? Read the full colour here.
🎬 In Case You Missed It: Melvin Deng, CEO of QCP on Bloomberg TV
Melvin Deng, our CEO, spoke with Bloomberg today about the BTC rebound, the liquidations that drove price action in recent days, where we are seeing opportunities on the ground, and the key triggers that could shift the crypto landscape in 2026.
Watch it now. | 50 620 |
| 7 |  Our CEO, @MelvinDeng , will be speaking at Abu Dhabi Finance Week 2025. On December 10, he’ll take the stage at “Collateral Infrastructure: Building the Rails for Tokenized Leverage,” joining global leaders to discuss the transformative power of financial, human, and technological capital.
Don’t miss your chance to be part of #ADFW – Engineering the Capital Network: https://adfw.com/tickets | 49 377 |
| 8 | ❤️️ FBG Asia Colour - 20 Nov 2025
BTC slips below 90K as macro pressures mount
Bitcoin extended its declines this week, briefly dipping beneath the key $90K threshold as firmer rate expectations and persistent ETF outflows continued to weigh on sentiment 📊. The move was amplified by thinner liquidity, underscoring Bitcoin’s increasing sensitivity to macro shifts.
The pullback comes amid a rapid repricing of Federal Reserve expectations, shifting from a near-certain December cut to roughly even odds. This adjustment has pressured duration-sensitive assets like BTC, while equities have found relative stability in strong corporate earnings, particularly from hyperscalers reporting robust profits and record AI-driven capital expenditure.
Macro data and the late-cycle narrative
With the U.S. government reopened, official data releases are resuming and providing much-needed clarity on underlying momentum. Markets are watching this week’s indicators closely, especially labour market data and the Conference Board’s LEI, which now incorporates updated vacancy metrics. These inputs will help determine whether labour tightness or inflation dominates the Fed’s reaction function into 2026.
Beneath the surface, the U.S. economy continues to show a K-shaped dynamic, with resilient spending among high-income households contrasting with growing stress on lower-income cohorts. Fed Chair Powell has reinforced a cautious stance, noting that a December cut is “not guaranteed.”
Overall, conditions appear more late-cycle than recessionary. While fiscal constraints and a divided labour market pose ongoing risks, strong household balance sheets and resilient corporate capex continue to buffer the downside. This week’s data will determine whether BTC’s drawdown marks a temporary positioning shakeout or the start of a broader risk-off shift.
@FBGVentures ❤️ | 51 573 |
| 9 |  ❤️ FBG Asia Colour - 3 Nov 2025
OG Profit-Taking Weighs on BTC
Crypto began November on shaky footing as BTC slipped from 110k to 107k during Asia hours, extending its recent downtrend. On-chain data shows legacy holders moving sizeable BTC sums to Kraken earlier today, a continuation of October’s steady outflows that likely explains BTC’s first red October since 2018.
The view that OG holders are driving crypto’s idiosyncratic consolidation appears reasonable. Recent selloffs, including today’s, came with no clear macro catalyst, even as equities and other risk assets outperform under supportive policy conditions.
Volatility ticked slightly higher over the past week, with skew still leaning toward puts, but market positioning suggests muted fear of another major drawdown. Leverage has largely been flushed out, with perpetual open interest remaining subdued since the 10 October liquidation and funding rates staying flat.
While price action may remain capped until these legacy holders finish redistributing, BTC’s resilience is notable. The market has absorbed roughly 405k BTC in legacy supply over the past month without breaching the 100k level. Despite slower accumulation from corporates like Strategy and Metaplanet, and light selling from smaller digital asset treasuries, spot prices remain well-supported. Even ETF outflows last week failed to break BTC’s current range.
Still, as BTC continues to consolidate in a multi-month band reminiscent of pre-breakout 2024, speculation has emerged on whether this cycle is nearing its end. Whether this marks the onset of another crypto winter is unclear. For now, long-term holders are realizing profits, while institutional inflows and adoption continue to strengthen the market’s foundation.
@FBGVentures ❤️ | 24 793 |
| 10 | When the Fed Meets the Data Void
Tonight’s FOMC is widely expected to be a non-event. The Fed is set to deliver a 25bp cut, consistent with its September dot plot, and Powell is unlikely to offer new forward guidance. The absence of official data since the U.S. government shutdown leaves the Fed effectively flying blind. Without inflation or labour prints, any policy recalibration would be premature.
The on-again, off-again tariff dynamic between the U.S. and China continues to cloud the macro backdrop. At the core are national security concerns around rare earth metals, the lifeblood of AI development and the new technological arms race of the 21st century. Encouragingly, relations between Trump and Xi appear to have stabilized ahead of their expected meeting later this week, potentially laying the groundwork for more constructive trade dialogue.
AI’s Endless Loop of Optimism
AI remains the primary engine of equity market optimism. OpenAI’s influence continues to ripple across sectors, from chipmakers to data centers to energy providers, as investors chase the Ouroboros-like promise of endless AI CAPEX. The comparison to the Dotcom bubble is hard to ignore, but as history shows, markets can stay irrational longer than most can stay solvent.
Crypto Left Behind
In crypto, enthusiasm remains muted. The 10 October flash crash left both retail and institutional players cautious, and order book liquidity has yet to recover. Meanwhile, Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs) are adding to sell pressure as many trade below 1 MNAV. If discounts persist, DATs may be forced into buybacks funded by asset sales, potentially adding another wave of supply to already thin markets.
@FBGVentures ❤️ | 34 689 |
| 11 |  ❤️ FBG Asia Colour - 27 October 2025
👀 All Eyes on Trump, Xi and the Fed: The Week That Could Break Uptober’s Streak
🔫 Crypto found its footing after a round of constructive US–China trade talks over the weekend. The agreed framework sets the stage for Thursday’s Trump–Xi meeting, where a potential trade deal could be signed.
The outcome of that deal may shape crypto’s near-term path more than Wednesday’s Fed rate decision. Still, the key focus for the Fed will be whether it ends its three-year quantitative tightening programme. Any signal of that coming sooner rather than later would support risk assets and re-anchor liquidity expectations.
🇺🇸 For now, BTC trades flat on the month, stuck near its early October levels. With a busy week of Big Tech earnings from Microsoft, Amazon, Apple, Google and Meta all reporting, investors are looking to corporate results for direction amid the ongoing data blackout from the US government shutdown. A weak equity tape could weigh on sentiment and risk derailing BTC’s bid to extend “Uptober’s” seven-year green streak.
😔 Domestically, optimism is fading. The government shutdown, now at 26 days, is set to stretch into November, already the second longest in US history, behind only 2018’s 34-day impasse, also under Trump. The Fed is effectively flying blind, with limited macro data, and so are markets. While rate cuts are priced in, the impact of a prolonged shutdown remains underappreciated.
🤷♂️ BTC and ETH risk reversals have shifted from heavy put-skew to near neutral, suggesting investors are less defensive. Still, it’s too early to call a bull resumption, not until BTC reclaims 116k to close the month. With multiple macro catalysts in play, crypto is likely to remain range bound before choosing its next leg.
@FBGVentures ❤️ | 34 035 |
| 12 | ❤️ FBG Asia Colour – 15 October 2025
Rate Cut to the Rescue?
After a volatile weekend, risk assets have stabilized, with equities hovering around 1.5% below recent highs and Bitcoin trading roughly 10% off its peak. The rebound has been driven partly by renewed rate cut expectations, as swap contracts now price in around 125 basis points of easing by end-2026. Chair Powell reaffirmed the Fed’s plan for another quarter-point cut this month, providing a near-term backstop for risk sentiment, even as the government shutdown delays key labour data.
Gold continues to dominate the spotlight, surging to a record $4,022 per ounce (+52% YTD) on the back of robust central-bank accumulation and falling real yields. Over 800 tons were added to global reserves in the first half of 2025, led by China, Turkey, and India, underscoring the shift toward reserve diversification. Major institutions including BofA and J.P. Morgan expect further upside, projecting a $4,500–$5,000 range by 2026.
The market narrative is evolving from a rate-sensitive to a liquidity-driven regime. Central bank buying, de-dollarization flows, and institutional portfolio hedging have become the dominant forces propelling gold higher, extending its relevance well beyond the traditional inflation-hedge framework.
Is the Digital Gold Narrative Still Alive?
Despite the weekend volatility, the Bitcoin–gold correlation has climbed above 0.85, highlighting synchronized flows between traditional and digital stores of value. While gold continues to post fresh highs, Bitcoin briefly touched a new record just before the weekend. With institutional treasuries accumulating positions and ETF inflows remaining robust ($102.7 million into BTC ETFs and $236.2 million into ETH ETFs yesterday), the setup for a renewed rally may already be forming.
But with tariff risks resurfacing and liquidity dynamics shifting, can Bitcoin maintain its “digital gold” status in the next phase of the macro cycle?
@FBGVentures ❤️ | 47 117 |
| 13 |  ❤️ FBG Asia Colour – 6 October 2025
BTC surged past 125k on Sunday amid thin weekend liquidity and minimal institutional support 🤑. With ETF inflows paused, the move underscored strong retail and whale demand.
Unlike the last two breaks above 123k, no major selloffs followed, hinting that large holders may have finished rotations or are waiting for an October breakout. Momentum is fueled by leveraged traders, with BTC-PERP funding elevated (35% Deribit, 29% Hyperliquid). But stretched perpetuals raise liquidation risks, as seen in the recent $3B wipeout.
Options traders short October Calls were forced to roll higher (126k–128k), signaling conviction in sustained upside.
🔥 The 12% weekly surge looks steep without clear catalysts, yet narratives matter: gold strength, BTC’s safe-haven appeal post-U.S. shutdown, and October’s bullish seasonality all support the rally. Meanwhile, BTC exchange balances hit six-year lows, reinforcing scarcity.
Still, institutional flows remain decisive. Spot ETFs pulled $3.2B last week, the second-largest inflow ever. Whether that momentum continues will determine if October delivers a parabolic leg or stalls in consolidation.
@FBGVentures ❤️ | 43 607 |
| 14 | sticker.webp | 45 090 |
| 15 | The first week of October brings ISM and nonfarm payrolls. The mix remains softening but resilient. The Citi Economic Surprise Index (CESI) has turned higher, GDPNow tracks near 3.3% (q/q, ann.), and core PCE sits at 2.9% y/y with firm consumption. With roughly 100 bps of 2024 easing still transmitting, there is little case to accelerate cuts immediately after the 25 bp “insurance” move. Powell’s emphasis on uncertainty pushed yields higher and trimmed 2025 cut expectations.
Activity points to moderate growth. S&P Global Manufacturing holds near 52 despite tariff and labour frictions. Disinflation has slowed, but not reversed. ISM employment, a reliable lead for payrolls, does not signal a rebound yet. We still expect labour markets to bottom into early 2026. Policy remains tilted toward risk management on jobs. With inflation near 3%, easing should remain shallow unless there is a clear downshift in growth. Rates remain two-way, with the front end anchored by the easing bias and the long end sticky on term premium and supply dynamics. A strong labour print would likely lift yields, pressure equities, and flatten the curve. Further cooling would validate gradual easing and steepen the curve.
On fiscal theatre, a U.S. government shutdown should be a market non-event beyond data delays and headline noise. Essential services continue, back-pay limits income effects, and past episodes have not derailed risk assets. During the 35-day 2018–19 shutdown, the S&P 500 rose close to 10%. Given BTC’s elevated beta to equities, we see shutdown-related dips as buy opportunities rather than chasing gap-ups.
The Week Ahead
Wednesday: ISM Manufacturing (consensus ≈ 49.3). Focus on employment, new orders, and backlogs for payroll lead and Q4 production run-rate. ADP may draw more attention than usual given recent payroll-report controversies.
Thursday: Initial claims and consumer confidence. Watch if last week’s tentative trough in claims holds.
Friday: Nonfarm Payrolls (consensus +50k, unemployment 4.3%). Treat as a sentiment barometer. Revisions remain volatile. The key question: was last month’s +22k an outlier or the start of a softer trend consistent with ISM employment?
@FBGVentures ❤️ | 49 700 |
| 16 | The first week of October brings ISM and nonfarm payrolls. The mix remains softening but resilient. The Citi Economic Surprise Index (CESI) has turned higher, GDPNow tracks near 3.3% (q/q, ann.), and core PCE sits at 2.9% y/y with firm consumption. With roughly 100 bps of 2024 easing still transmitting, there is little case to accelerate cuts immediately after the 25 bp “insurance” move. Powell’s emphasis on uncertainty pushed yields higher and trimmed 2025 cut expectations.
Activity points to moderate growth. S&P Global Manufacturing holds near 52 despite tariff and labour frictions. Disinflation has slowed, but not reversed. ISM employment, a reliable lead for payrolls, does not signal a rebound yet. We still expect labour markets to bottom into early 2026. Policy remains tilted toward risk management on jobs. With inflation near 3%, easing should remain shallow unless there is a clear downshift in growth. Rates remain two-way, with the front end anchored by the easing bias and the long end sticky on term premium and supply dynamics. A strong labour print would likely lift yields, pressure equities, and flatten the curve. Further cooling would validate gradual easing and steepen the curve.
On fiscal theatre, a U.S. government shutdown should be a market non-event beyond data delays and headline noise. Essential services continue, back-pay limits income effects, and past episodes have not derailed risk assets. During the 35-day 2018–19 shutdown, the S&P 500 rose close to 10%. Given BTC’s elevated beta to equities, we see shutdown-related dips as buy opportunities rather than chasing gap-ups.
The Week Ahead
Wednesday: ISM Manufacturing (consensus ≈ 49.3). Focus on employment, new orders, and backlogs for payroll lead and Q4 production run-rate. ADP may draw more attention than usual given recent payroll-report controversies.
Thursday: Initial claims and consumer confidence. Watch if last week’s tentative trough in claims holds.
Friday: Nonfarm Payrolls (consensus +50k, unemployment 4.3%). Treat as a sentiment barometer. Revisions remain volatile. The key question: was last month’s +22k an outlier or the start of a softer trend consistent with ISM employment?
@FBGVentures ❤️ | 1 |
| 17 | ❤️ Markets Stabilize as Vols Drift Lower Into NFP
Crypto is showing tentative signs of recovery after last week’s washout. BTC and ETH have reclaimed 112k and 4.1k, trading at similar levels to last Monday. Despite sizable ETF outflows, particularly on Friday, spot managed to hold sideways through the weekend. This points to quarter-end basis unwinds as a key driver of redemptions, with markets absorbing the selling pressure more smoothly than expected. With spot rebounding, this week’s ETF flows could set the tone for institutional demand heading into a seasonally bullish month.
Vols are trending lower, with expectations that they will drift further as spot consolidates ahead of Friday’s US Non-Farm Payrolls. While there are questions around whether NFP could be delayed if the US government shuts down, markets appear relatively unfazed, buoyed by Wall Street’s gains.
Optimism is also re-emerging in the highly leveraged perp space. Rather than retreating after last week’s liquidations, leveraged longs are back in force. Perp OI has risen from $42.8bn to $43.6bn, BTC-PERP funding rates remain positive, and Deribit is printing 13%. Hyperliquid’s long bias is also climbing back to 57%, up from just 36% last week.
After a volatile month, BTC remains more than 3% higher and conditions look supportive for so-called Uptober. That said, BTC still needs to clear 115k to confirm a renewed uptrend. Options markets reflect this hesitation, with put skew and OI in BTC and ETH slowly normalizing as traders rebuild conviction
@FBGVentures ❤️ | 52 596 |
| 18 | September Effect Still Weighs on Markets
Crypto markets remained under pressure as September draws to a close. US equities slid sharply overnight, though Chinese names managed to buck the trend with relative outperformance. BTC is clinging to support at 111.7k, while ETH slipped below the 4.1k threshold that had held since early August. A decisive break lower would put recent troughs back in play, with 107k for BTC and 3.3k for ETH the next levels to watch.
Resilience Beneath the Surface
Despite the sell-off, institutional demand shows little sign of fading. BTC spot ETFs attracted US$241 million of inflows overnight, snapping a two-day run of outflows. Dip buying remains evident, with October 118k BTC calls dominating daily options activity.
As Q4 approaches, historically a more constructive period, optimism persists, supported by looser credit conditions. Markets are pricing in two further rate cuts of 25 bps in October and December. Unless next week’s non-farm payrolls surprises on the upside, that narrative is likely to hold.
@FBGVentures ❤️ | 50 630 |
| 19 |  ❤️ FBG Asia Colour - September 22, 2025
The tone has shifted from panic to recalibration. PCE looks set to guide the curve’s shape rather than the broader policy regime. The Fed’s 25 bp insurance cut reopened the easing path, yet the dots signaled only measured dovishness. Long rates climbed on term-premium and supply pressures even as the front end re-anchored. Equities pushed to fresh highs. Gold briefly topped $3.7k before retracing. The USD firmed alongside Treasuries, raising the question of whether the one-way dollar short has finally run its course.
Chair Powell framed the cut as risk management against softer labor momentum. With activity still robust and core inflation near 3%, the easing cycle looks shallow unless growth cracks clearly emerge. The Fed is leaning toward the employment side but will tread carefully given sticky disinflation, tariff uncertainty, and the risk of stimulating lending into strength.
Governor Stephen Miran has argued policy remains too restrictive relative to a lower r*. Demographics, immigration, and other structural forces, in his view, anchor a “mid-2%” fair funds rate well below current settings. That suggests the hurdle for additional cuts may be lower than the dots alone imply.
Beneath tariff chatter, consumption remains resilient and inventories have rebuilt. Labor markets resemble a slow-hire, slow-fire cycle rather than outright weakness. The cut buys time but does not solve fiscal arithmetic. More reliance on duration management, bill issuance, and other funding-mix adjustments looks likely, leaving a persistently elevated long-end term premium.
The USD slide in the first half of 2025 reflected flows, policy divergence, and governance concerns. With the first cut behind us and Europe and Japan no longer clear outperformers, the risk of a bottoming move is real. We still see the dollar softer into year-end on divergence and further easing, but last week’s post-FOMC rebound is a reminder that the path is likely to stay choppy. Gold’s record underscores lingering doubts that the Fed will reassert hawkish credibility, leaving a safety premium in place. BTC shares this beta, though with sharper swings.
@FBGVentures ❤️ | 50 664 |
| 20 |  ❤️ FBG Capital Daily Market Report – September 21, 2025
📎 Executive Summary
Markets are adjusting after the Fed’s 25bps cut to 4.00–4.25%. Equities hit new highs, though guidance points to only 75bps more easing by end-2026, tempering optimism. Core PCE at 3.0% and tariff risks keep the Fed cautious. Bitcoin holds above $116K with \$1.1B ETF inflows but lags the Nasdaq’s 5% rally. The 10Y yield rose to 4.13%, the dollar is steady, and crypto market cap climbed 0.8% to $4.04T. Bias stays bullish, but hedging with 42% IV options is advised.
🪙 Crypto Snapshot
BTC $116K, ETH $4,650, with record $266M ETH ETF inflow. Solana +3% on filings, Dogecoin +2%, XRP steady at $3.05. MC $4.04T, trading volumes $155B (+5%). Fear & Greed Index 55, APAC on-chain activity +10% to $2.36T. Risks: tariffs, regulation
⌨️ TradFi Overview
S&P 500 +0.32% (6,653), Nasdaq +0.72% (22,631), tech and small caps lead. UST 10Y yield 4.13%. Gold stable at $2,650/oz, oil down to $72/bbl. Consumer confidence 56.2, jobless claims 260K
❕ Flows & Positioning
Crypto OI stable, low vol; institutions added $1.2B to ETFs. Equity flows rotate to value/small caps but tech still leads with 60%. Tokenized RWAs at $15B AUM ( +10% ).
👁 Macro Watch
Fed neutral, unemployment 4.3%, retail sales +0.1%. ECB projects 2.0% growth by 2026. Tariffs and geopolitics weigh, while regulation supports crypto.
>>> FBG Outlook
BTC could test $118K if jobless claims <250K and PCE <3.0%. ETH rotation supported by 4.5% staking yield. Suggested allocation: 55% BTC/ETH, 35% alts, 10% RWAs, targeting $20B AUM by Q4. Hedge with 25D strangles.
@FBGVentures ❤️ | 53 408 |
