Trade Watcher

JUST IN: President Trump has announced that he will deliver an address to the nation tomorrow night at 9 PM EST. @trading

JUST IN: US federal employment has declined to its lowest level since 2014, due to widespread layoffs implemented by the Trump Administration. @trading

JUST IN: US oil prices have fallen to $55 per barrel, reaching the lowest level since February 2021. President Trump continues to advocate for gas prices to drop to $2 per gallon. @trading

🇺🇸 US Unemployment Rate: 4.6% Expectations: 4.4% It came higher than expected which means the labor market is getting weaker. The Fed will have to do more easing in 2026. ✅ @trading

🚨 US unemployment rate in 1 hour The US unemployment rate drops at 08:30 AM ET. ➡️ Expected: 4.4% 🔼 If unemployment prints above 4.4%, markets may lean toward a softer economy and higher odds of Fed cuts, which is usually supportive for risk assets. 🔽 If it prints below 4.4%, the labor market looks tighter and that can add short term pressure. How will the market react? 👍 Up 🤝 Flat 👎 Down ✅ @trading

⚠️ Wall Street’s cheat code is breaking For almost 20 years, Wall Street lived with a hidden advantage. It was called the Yen Carry Trade. And it is starting to unwind right as the Fed lays out plans for the next year. The setup was absurdly simple and massively profitable. 🟡 Borrow in Japan at near 0% 🟡 Buy US Treasuries yielding 4–5% 🟡 Pocket the spread with minimal own capital This was quasi risk free leverage. A global liquidity pump. Those flows supported everything. Nasdaq, growth stocks, real estate, crypto. As long as Japan stayed near zero and US rates stayed high, the machine worked. ⌛ The rules are changing Japan has finally started raising rates to defend the yen. At the same time, the Fed is pivoting toward cuts. The rate spread that powered the trade is compressing. Cheap money is no longer cheap. 💸 Why this matters When Japanese rates rise, the carry trade flips. Positions have to be closed. Yen needs to be repaid. That means selling US assets. Capital flows reverse. Money stops flowing into the US and starts getting pulled back to Tokyo. This is not a crash event. It is worse. A slow, structural drain of liquidity. These shifts rarely look dramatic at first. But when a long standing source of demand disappears, price support fades across markets. And this is only the beginning. ✅ @trading

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Most traders quit not because they can't make money, but because they can't handle the mental stress and pressure. ✅ @trading

❌ A Man Learns Nothing From Winning Your winning trades don't teach you much. They feel great. They validate you. They make you think you've figured it all out. But what are they actually teaching you? That you got lucky this time? That the setup worked? Not much beyond that. Your losing trades, though? That's where everything is. However, only if you're willing to learn from them. Most traders take a loss and immediately move on. They don't want to sit with it. It's uncomfortable. It reminds them they were wrong. So they brush it off and jump to the next trade, hoping this one works out. But if you actually sit with that loss. If you pull up the chart again and ask: what did I miss? Was my entry late? Did I ignore something obvious? Was I emotional? Impatient? That's when you grow. Losses show you where you're still weak. Where your emotions are sneaking in. Where your understanding has gaps. Winning trades never show you that. They just cover up your flaws temporarily. The wisdom is in the losses. But you have to be willing to look for it. Don't run from your losing trades. Sit with them. Study them. They're not setbacks. They're lessons. Winning feels good. But losing makes you better. ✅ @trading

⚠️ The US Treasury has a 2026 problem This is not a 2035 story. The pressure point is 2026. 💵 The issue is simple and brutal. Trillions of dollars of US debt come up for refinancing around the same time. A lot of that debt was issued in the zero rate era. Cheap money felt safe. Now the same size needs to be rolled at much higher yields. 🟡 The US loaded up on low cost debt 🟡 Maturities cluster together 🟡 New funding is more expensive 🟡 Interest expense climbs fast ⭕️ Then comes the part nobody likes. There is no clean option. Cut spending. Raise taxes. Lean on markets. Dilute the dollar. Most likely a mix of all of it. ❕ This is not a bonds only problem. A refinancing wave of that size hits everything. Stocks, bonds, real estate, crypto. When a sovereign has to roll debt at scale, nothing is truly insulated. ⏰ The dangerous part is timing. These stories rarely explode instantly. First it looks manageable. Then interest payments start eating the budget, liquidity tightens, and markets reprice everything at once. Most people will notice only after the shift is already done. Keep an eye on 2026. Structural pressure is quiet right up until it breaks the whole setup. ✅ @trading

⚠️ Key Events This Week A massive backlog of economic data hits the market this week. Inflation and labor prints will dominate expectations for rates, yields, and risk into year end. 🗓 Tuesday 🟡 October retail sales — key read on consumer demand. Strong spending supports growth and higher yields. Weakness points to slowing momentum. 🟡 November jobs report — major labor signal. A soft print strengthens rate cut expectations. Resilience keeps the Fed cautious. 🗓 Thursday 🔴 November CPI inflation — headline inflation print. Sticky CPI pressures bonds and risk assets. Softer CPI supports easing expectations. 🟡 December Philly Fed manufacturing index — snapshot of industrial activity. Weakness confirms slowing growth. 🗓 Friday 🟡 October PCE inflation — the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. Critical for rate path expectations. 🟡 November existing home sales — reflects housing demand under high rates. 🟡 Michigan inflation expectations — tracks household views on future inflation. 🟡 Michigan consumer sentiment — measures confidence and spending appetite. 🔴 Bank of Japan rate decision — key risk for the global carry trade. Any hike tightens JPY funding and can trigger broader risk unwinds. 🔴 Triple Witching — options and futures expire simultaneously. Large volumes roll off the book and can amplify existing moves. 🔴 US Congress goes on recess — no political backstop if something breaks. Markets are on their own. This week is a convergence of macro pressure points. US inflation and jobs set the base case, while BoJ policy, expirations, and thin liquidity add tail risk. Soft data keeps risk supported. Sticky inflation or policy shocks could escalate volatility fast. ✅ @trading

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The worst pain isn’t losing money. It’s knowing your potential and watching your brain panic and destroy it every time money is on the line. ✅ @trading

Discipline isn’t about doing more. It’s about doing less, on purpose. ✅ @trading

These mistakes make many retail traders unprofitable ✅ @trading

Be thankful to God for whatever you have. ✅ @trading

ONLY 6 SPOTS LEFT Jackson Signals 💵The private channel is open for just 24 hours before it closes! @Jackson_Signals subscribers are already profiting from proven trades. Don’t miss your chance 👇 Ad. 18+

If you don't take risks. You'll work for someone else. Who did. ✅ @trading

Great advice on how to sell. ✅ @trading

Ex-Goldman Sachs trader rewires your brain to show you how to think about money. ✅ @trading